Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych

Dążenie do prawdy jako źródło etyki statystyka

Czesław Domański — 2024-09-30

Postawa etyczna statystyka to dążenie do prawdy oraz unikanie i eliminowanie wpływów i nacisków wewnętrznych jak i zewnętrznych na rzetelny końcowy efekt badań. Celem artykułu jest określenie źródeł gwarantujących postawę etyczną, w której uwzględniamy: dążenie do prawdy, profesjonalizm i niezależność badawczą. Najważniejszym przesłaniem „zasad etycznych” jest dążenie do prawdy. Omawiając problem związany z etyką statystyka należy uwzględniać niebezpieczeństwa, gdyż informacja statystyczna stała się „towarem” z jednej strony ze względu na szybki rozwój technologii elektronicznej, które stwarzają możliwości manipulacji tą informacją.

If Multilayer Perceptron Network May Help in Multivariate EPS Forecasting. Evidence from Poland.

Wojciech Kuryłek — 2024-09-30

This investigation delves into the significance of precise earnings forecasts for publicly traded companies in attaining investment success. It highlights the importance of this aspect, particularly in markets with restricted analyst coverage, such as emerging markets like Poland. The study assesses the accuracy of predictions generated by diverse models utilizing distinct sets of explanatory variables, incorporating artificial neural network architectures, in contrast to a seasonal random walk model. These models are employed on earnings per share (EPS) data of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange spanning from 2008 to 2019. The seasonal random walk model exhibited the lowest error, gauged by the Mean Arctangent Absolute Percentage Error (MAAPE), a finding corroborated through rigorous statistical tests. Numerous robustness checks involving different timeframes and error metrics affirm this conclusion. The ascendancy of a simplistic model may stem from the overfitting tendencies of intricate models and the relatively straightforward dynamics characterizing the Polish listed companies.

Application of ITransformers to Predicting Preterm Birth Rate. Comparison with the ARIMA Model

Marek Karwański — 2024-09-30

In this paper, we study the differences between forecasts obtained with the classical seasonal ARIMA model and forecasts obtained with the neural network model called iTransformers. The analysis is done on Polish data concerning preterm birth from 2015 to 2020. We compare the results and calculate the effect size to conclude the impact of the obtained differences.

Problems of Excise Tax on the Example of Import of Plastic Lubricants

Jarosław Gorący — 2024-09-30

The paper attempts to present the issue of excise taxation of goods - plastic greases. The specificity of the product such as plastic greases and the gap in existing tax regulations will be explained. Excise tax and the method of calculating it will be discussed. The dynamics of the volume of imports of goods to Poland will be presented and problems related to separating the volume of imports of plastic greases will be indicated. The paper will propose an attempt to identify the lubricants in question by CN codes (EU "Combined Nomenclature" - tariff and statistical nomenclature for goods). The volume of import of plastic greases will be assessed against the background of imports of other lubricants and fuel products.