Main Article Content
The aim of the article is to present results of the study on the link between business cycle and house prices in 16 regional capital cities in Poland. Using quarterly data for the period 2010-2024, the study finds that regional business cycle effects on cyclical fluctuations in regional house prices are predominantly positive. Following an increase in the National Bank of Poland (NBP) reference rate, house prices are on a decline in 11 out of 16 regional capital cities. The effects of housing quality and the exchange rate on house prices are ambiguous.
Article Details
André C., Garcia C. (2012) Housing Price and Investment Dynamics in Finland. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, 962. https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5k98rwldjr44-en. (Crossref)
Annett A. (2005) Euro Area Policies: Selected Issues. IMF Country Report, 05/266. (Crossref)
Augustyniak H., Łaszek J., Olszewski K., Waszczuk J. (2013) Modelling of Cycles in the Residential Real Estate Market – Interactions Between the Primary and the Secondary Market and Multiplier Effects. National Bank of Poland Working Paper, 143. (Crossref)
Barras R. (1994) Property and the Economic Cycle: Building Cycles Revisited. Journal of Property Research, 11(3), 183-97. https://doi.org/10.1080/09599919408724116 (Crossref)
Catte P., Girouard N., Price R., André C. (2004) Housing Markets, Wealth and the Business Cycle. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, 394.
Dahl J., Goralczyk M. (2017) Recent Supply and Demand Developments in the German Housing Market. European Economy – Economic Briefs, 025.
Davis M., Heathcote J. (2005) Housing and the Business Cycle. International Economic Review, 46(3), 751-784. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2354.2005.00345.x (Crossref)
Duca J.V., Muellbauer J., Murphy A. (2021) What Drives House Price Cycles? International Experience and Policy Issues. Journal of Economic Literature, 59(3), 773-864. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20201325773-864 (Crossref)
Genesove D., Mayer C. (2001) Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(4), 1233-1260. https://doi.org/10.1162/ 003355301753265561 (Crossref)
Girouard N., Kennedy M., van der Noord P., André C. (2006) Recent House Price Developments: The Role of Fundamentals. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, 47.
Hill R. (2011) Hedonic Price Indexes for Housing. OECD Statistics Working Papers, 2011/01. https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5kghzxpt6g6f-en (Crossref)
Igan D., Loungani P. (2012) Global Housing Cycles. IMF Working Paper, WP/12/217. (Crossref)
Jadevicius A., Sloan B., Brown A. (2014) Century of Research on Property Cycles: A literature review. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 21(2), 129-143. https://doi.org/10.3846/1648715X.2016.1255273 (Crossref)
Leamer E. (2007) Housing Really Is the Business Cycle: What Survives the Lessons of 2008–09? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 47(S1), 43-50. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12189 (Crossref)
Malpezzi S., Wachter S. (2005) The Role of Speculation in Real Estate Cycles. Journal of Real Estate Literature, 13(2), 143-164. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2585241 (Crossref)
Marzano E., Piselli P., Rubinacci R. (2023) The Housing Cycle as Shaped by Prices and Transactions: A Tentative Application of the Honeycomb Approach for Italy (1927–2019). Journal of European Real Estate Research, 16(1), 2-21. https://doi.org/10.1108/ JERER-02-2021-0011 (Crossref)
Olszewski K., Augustyniak H., Leszczyński L., Łaszek J., Waszczuk J. (2015) On the Dynamics of the Primary Housing Market and the Forecasting of House Prices. Combining Micro and Macro Data for Financial Stability Analysis. IFC Bulletin, 41.
Ortalo-Magné F., Rady S. (2001) Housing Market Dynamics. On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints. Munich Discussion Paper, 2001-9. https://doi.org/ 10.5282/ubm/epub.20 (Crossref)
Sala-Rios M. (2018) How do Housing Prices and Business Cycles Interact in Spain? An Empirical Analysis. Estudios de Economia Aplicada, 36(3), 897-920. (Crossref)
Savva C. (2018) Factors Affecting Housing Prices: International Evidence. University of Cyprus Economic Analysis Papers, 06-16.
Schnure C. (2005) United States: Selected Issues. IMF Country Report, 05/258. (Crossref)
Shevchuk V. (2022) Determinants of the Real Estate Prices in Poland. [in:] Jajuga K., Dehnel G., Walesiak M. (Ed.) Modern Classification and Data Analysis. SKAD 2021. Studies in Classification, Data Analysis, and Knowledge Organization. Springer: Cham, Switzerland, 119-134. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-10190-8_9 (Crossref)
Zelazowski K. (2017) Housing Market Cycles in the Context of Business Cycles. Real Estate Management and Valuation, 25(3), 5-14. (Crossref)
Downloads
- Victor Shevchuk, Time-Varying Exchange Rate Pass-through in Eastern Europe , Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych: Tom 23 Nr 3 (2022)
- Victor Shevchuk, Roman Kopych, GERMAN FISCAL AUSTERITY EFFECTS ON INVESTMENTS AND EXPORTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES , Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych: Tom 18 Nr 1 (2017)
- Victor Shevchuk, DETERMINANTS OF THE DEMAND FOR INTERNATIONAL RESERVES IN UKRAINE. , Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych: Tom 16 Nr 2 (2015)
- Victor Shevchuk, SECTORAL MONEY SUPPLY EFFECTS IN UKRAINE , Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych: Tom 15 Nr 2 (2014)

Utwór dostępny jest na licencji Creative Commons Uznanie autorstwa – Użycie niekomercyjne 4.0 Międzynarodowe.
Publikowane artykuły dostępne są na warunkach Open Access na zasadach licencji Creative Commons CC BY-NC – do celów niekomercyjnych udostępnione materiały mogą być kopiowane, drukowane i rozpowszechniane. Autorzy ponoszą opłatę za opublikowanie artykułu.